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Oil Holds Near Month Lows as Ukraine Peace Push Raises Supply Risk

Traders weigh the chance that sanctions on Russian barrels could ease into an already glutted market.

Overview

  • Brent hovered near $62.7 a barrel and WTI around $58 after a one‑month low on Tuesday and a modest rebound in early Wednesday trading.
  • Ukrainian and U.S. officials signaled progress on a U.S.-backed framework, with only a few issues outstanding, while Russia had not publicly responded.
  • Analysts say potential sanctions relief could unleash roughly 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded at sea and increase exports.
  • Market fundamentals remain heavy as OPEC+ restores supply, U.S. output forecasts rise, and the IEA projects a record surplus in 2026.
  • Indian refiners are set to pare Russian crude purchases in December to about 600,000–650,000 bpd from roughly 1.87 million bpd in November amid tighter compliance.