Overview

• President Trump’s 50-day ultimatum for Russia to end the Ukraine war or face secondary oil sanctions sparked initial price gains but later eased supply concerns as markets doubted swift enforcement.
• Conflicting reports on June output have emerged after the IEA said Saudi Arabia exceeded its OPEC+ target by 430,000 barrels per day while Riyadh’s energy ministry maintains full compliance.
• Benchmark Brent and WTI have hovered around $68–70 per barrel as OECD inventories remain nearly 100 million barrels below year-ago levels and U.S. stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, stand at 11-year lows.
• Strong seasonal demand is supporting prices with U.S. diesel stocks 23% below the five-year average and China’s refinery throughput up 8.5% in June year-on-year.
• Analysts including ING warn that a planned OPEC+ boost of more than 500,000 barrels per day in August and a likely September increase could push the market into a surplus by the fourth quarter.