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Oil Holds Near $69 as Russian Strikes Crimp Flows and Urals Discounts to India Deepen

Market attention shifts to the Sept. 7 OPEC+ meeting for guidance on supply policy.

Overview

  • Brent hovered around $69 and WTI near $66, keeping prices in a narrow mid-to-high $60s range after Tuesday’s gains.
  • Reuters’ calculations show Ukrainian attacks have idled at least 17% of Russia’s oil-processing capacity, roughly 1.1 million barrels per day, while tanker data put Russian seaborne exports at a four-week low of 2.72 million bpd.
  • Russia is offering Urals to Indian refiners at $3–$4 per barrel below Brent for late September and October loadings, and Indian buyers took about 11.4 million barrels between Aug. 27 and Sept. 1.
  • The U.S. raised total tariffs on Indian imports to 50% tied to New Delhi’s Russian crude purchases, feeding demand uncertainty even as India continues buying discounted barrels.
  • Analysts broadly expect OPEC+ to hold October output steady at the Sept. 7 meeting as record U.S. production and earlier supply increases keep surplus concerns in focus.