Overview
- Crude rallied more than 2% on Monday and was steady early Tuesday, with Brent near $62 and WTI around $58 after weekend escalations kept supply-risk pricing in play.
- The delayed EIA report showed a U.S. crude build of 405,000 barrels for the week to Dec. 19, with gasoline up 2.9 million barrels and distillates up 202,000, undercutting a forecast for a crude draw.
- Russia and Ukraine traded strikes on energy infrastructure as Trump and Zelenskiy reported progress toward a framework but left core issues such as control of Donbas unresolved; Moscow said it would review its negotiating stance after alleging a drone attack on a presidential residence.
- Middle East tensions supported prices, with Saudi airstrikes in Yemen reported and President Trump warning of potential new action if Iran resumes weapons work, while U.S. enforcement against Venezuelan shipments tightened flows and Venezuela began shutting some wells.
- Despite headline risk, the market tone remains bearish with the IEA flagging a roughly 3.8 million bpd surplus in 2026, banks trimming price targets, and traders citing a WTI range near $55–$60 as the futures curve leans toward contango.