Overview
- On Monday, Brent briefly topped $106 after Houthi strikes on Riyadh’s airport and reported drone hits on tankers near Sohar and the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about Gulf crude flows.
- The White House said Russia would supply roughly 300,000 metric tons (about 2.25 million barrels) of diesel to world markets and the U.S. Treasury issued a temporary six‑month license to ease fuel sanctions.
- European gasoil and U.S. diesel futures fell sharply on expectations of additional Russian product even as analysts warned Russian refinery outages and export constraints limit near‑term volumes.
- Traders are balancing heightened regional risk with possible extra diesel so Brent sits around $105–106 and banks such as Goldman Sachs are embedding a roughly $20‑a‑barrel geopolitical premium into near‑term forecasts.
- With inventories low, prior refinery outages and higher freight and insurance costs, officials and the IEA are assessing diesel releases and rerouting options because any consumer relief is likely to be modest and slow.