Particle.news
Download on the App Store
26 ARTICLES
·
4d ago

Oil Hits Five-Month Lows as IEA Flags 2026 Glut and OPEC+ Lifts Output

An IEA surplus warning signals near-term slack despite executives' medium-term optimism.

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
A pump jack drills oil crude from the Yates Oilfield in West Texas' Permian Basin near Iraan, Texas, U.S., March 17, 2023. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
Plants are displayed at the booth of American multinational oil and gas corporation ExxonMobil during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Chris Helgren
Image

Overview

  • The International Energy Agency now projects a potential surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026 after raising supply growth and trimming demand, with a reported 102 million‑barrel jump in oil on water in September.
  • OPEC kept its 2025–2026 demand outlook unchanged at about 105.1 million bpd next year and 106.5 million bpd in 2026, while OPEC+ crude output rose by 630,000 bpd in September to roughly 43.05 million bpd.
  • Prices neared five‑month lows with Brent around $62 and WTI near $59 as futures backwardation narrowed to the tightest since January 2024, heightening talk of a possible shift to contango.
  • U.S.–China trade tensions escalated with new port fees, Chinese sanctions on U.S.-linked firms, and tariff threats from Washington, deepening concerns about global demand and freight flows.
  • Oil majors and traders said the surplus should ease over time as decline rates bite and investment lags, while Bank of America warned Brent could test below $50 if demand weakens further or tariffs intensify.