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Oil Heads for Small Weekly Gain as Geopolitics Counter Oversupply

Saudi price cuts to Asia highlight weak demand despite persistent disruption risks.

Overview

  • Brent hovered near $63 and WTI around $60 on Friday, leaving both benchmarks up roughly 1–2% for the week after a narrow trading range.
  • A Reuters poll showed 82% of economists expect a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve cut next week, a prospect that would bolster fuel demand.
  • Stalled Moscow talks on a Ukraine ceasefire reduced the likelihood of sanctions relief that could restore Russian barrels to the market.
  • Rystad Energy warned that a potential U.S. military move into Venezuela could put about 1.1 million barrels per day of production at risk.
  • Saudi Aramco lowered January official selling prices to Asia to the lowest since 2021, reinforcing surplus concerns as OPEC+ keeps output steady into early 2026.