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Oil Heads for Fourth Monthly Drop as CME Outage Freezes WTI and 2026 Glut Forecasts Deepen

Forecasts of a 2026 surplus with OPEC+ set to hold output reinforce pressure on benchmarks despite volatile geopolitics.

Overview

  • WTI futures were briefly halted after a cooling failure at CyrusOne forced CME Group to pause trading across markets, with trading later resuming and WTI up about 1% as Brent held near flat.
  • Both Brent and WTI are set for a fourth straight monthly decline even after small weekly gains, as analysts point to abundant supply outweighing demand support from refining margins.
  • A Reuters poll of 35 economists projects Brent averaging $62.23 and WTI $59.00 in 2026, with estimates of a sizeable surplus and the IEA implying a roughly 4.09 million bpd overhang.
  • OPEC+ is expected to keep production unchanged at Sunday’s meeting and to adopt a mechanism to assess members’ maximum capacity, according to group delegates and sources.
  • Saudi Arabia is expected to cut January prices for Asian buyers for a second month to a five‑year low, while RussiaUkraine negotiations continue to drive short‑term price swings and Wall Street forecasts flag even lower 2026 levels.