Overview

• U.S. EIA reported a 3.7 million-barrel crude build for the week ended Oct. 3, with gasoline down 1.6 million and distillates down 2.0 million, while Cushing stocks fell by about 763,000 barrels and remain thin by historical standards.
• Prices ticked higher on Wednesday, with Brent settling at $66.25 and WTI at $62.55, supported by product draws and a drop at the Cushing hub.
• OPEC+ approved a smaller-than-expected 137,000 bpd increase starting in November, a cautious step as the group unwinds past cuts.
• The EIA lifted its 2025 U.S. production outlook to 13.53 million bpd and warned of rising inventories, and the IEA projects a record surplus next year; Goldman Sachs sees an average surplus of roughly 2 million bpd from late 2025 through 2026.
• Ukrainian drone strikes have curbed Russian refining, pushing crude exports toward a 16‑month high and widening Urals discounts to $2–$2.50 below Dated Brent, with Kpler data indicating India’s October Russian crude imports could rebound to about 1.7 million bpd.