Overview
- Brent hovered near $62 and WTI around $58 after roughly 3% declines last week, reflecting expectations that more Russian barrels could re-enter the market.
- The U.S. and Ukraine reported progress on a revised peace framework that could require Kyiv to cede territory and pull back from NATO ambitions.
- New U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil that took effect Friday have stranded about 48 million barrels at sea, yet analysts say a deal that eases sanctions would have a larger market impact.
- President Donald Trump set a Thursday deadline as European leaders push for changes and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described the talks as reaching a critical moment.
- A stronger dollar, rising OPEC+ output, and an IEA outlook for a record 2026 surplus are reinforcing the bearish tone despite some speculation about near-term Fed rate cuts.