Overview
- Brent hovered near $60 and WTI near $55–56 for a second weekly drop as brief rallies faded into selling.
- Major forecasters expect a 2026 glut, with Kpler estimating about 1.3 billion barrels of crude on water and floating storage climbing.
- President Trump ordered a “complete and total blockade” of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers, yet analysts say Venezuela’s sub‑1% share of global supply and China-bound flows limit the wider impact unless enforcement escalates.
- Growing prospects of a Russia‑Ukraine peace deal have trimmed risk premia, with traders anticipating possible sanction relief that could increase Russian exports.
- OPEC+ made a modest December increase then set a Q1 pause while continuing to unwind voluntary cuts, and weak crack spreads plus product builds signaled soft refinery demand.