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Oil Extends Gains on Iran Unrest as Venezuela Export Plans Cap Upside

Fresh supply fears from Iran met expectations of Venezuelan barrels returning, tempering the rally.

Overview

  • Brent rose to $63.65 and WTI to $59.42 early Monday, extending last week’s advance after roughly 2% gains on Friday.
  • Intensifying protests in Iran, including a reported nationwide internet blackout, and Russian hypersonic strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure lifted supply risk, with analysts warning up to 1.9 million bpd of Iranian exports could be at risk.
  • A rights group reported more than 500 deaths in Iran’s unrest, and President Trump will meet advisers Tuesday to consider options on the crisis.
  • Venezuela is expected to resume shipments after Nicolas Maduro’s ouster, with firms engaging the White House as Trafigura targets a loading next week and competition grows to market up to 50 million barrels from PDVSA inventories.
  • Rising stocks and a bearish backdrop persisted, with OPEC pumping 28.40 million bpd last month, the U.S. rig count slipping to 544, and analysts cautioning that oversupply is likely to cap sustained price gains.