Overview
- The conflict began after U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28 that reportedly killed Iran’s supreme leader and other senior figures and triggered Iranian counterattacks across the region.
- Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, laid mines and fired on ships, and its forces have stopped vessels it labels illegal, using the waterway as a lever in the war.
- Commercial trackers estimate about 7.4 million barrels per day now pass through the strait and about 13 million bpd leave Arab states using Hormuz and alternative routes as exporters shift to Red Sea, Oman coastal lanes and ship‑to‑ship transfers.
- The U.S. Navy is escorting tankers and many vessels switch off tracking systems, which makes official flow counts hard to verify and keeps shipping risk and insurance costs high.
- Oil is still trading near $105 per barrel because ship‑to‑ship transfers and longer routes raise transport costs, political statements and recent attacks including a rocket strike that injured U.S. Marines sustain market anxiety and raise the risk of further disruption.