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Oil Edges Higher After OPEC+ Opts for Small October Hike

Major forecasts point to a 2025–2026 supply overhang, underscored by Saudi Aramco's October price cuts.

A drone view shows drilling rigs sit in storage at an equipment yard in Odessa, Texas, U.S. June 10, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
A drone view of a pump jack and drilling rig south of Midland, Texas, U.S. June 11, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
A view shows a pressure gauge near oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, U.S. February 18, 2025.  REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo

Overview

  • OPEC+ will add 137,000 barrels per day from October, with any further return of the remaining 1.65 million bpd framed as contingent on market conditions and reversible.
  • Brent traded near $66 and WTI around $62 after the decision, with prices supported by speculation about new sanctions on Russia following escalated attacks in Ukraine.
  • Saudi Aramco cut official selling prices for most grades for October, including a $1 reduction for Arab Light to Asia, a move traders viewed as a bearish signal for demand.
  • Goldman Sachs now projects a roughly 1.9 million bpd surplus by 2026 and sees Brent in the mid‑$50s next year, while S&P Global warned prices could drop to about $55 by year‑end as inventories build.
  • U.S. oil companies have announced layoffs and trimmed capital spending as prices fall, and surveys and agencies expect U.S. output growth to slow or plateau into 2026.