Oil Demand Forecasts by IEA, OPEC Questioned Amid Modest Asian Imports

Saudi Arabia Expected to Extend Supply Cuts into 2024 as Global Oil Markets Anticipate Balance

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC have raised their forecasts for world oil demand growth in 2023, but actual crude imports by Asia tell a different story, suggesting the forecasts may be overly optimistic.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, is expected to extend its additional voluntary supply cuts to at least the first quarter of 2024, according to consultancy Energy Aspects.
Global oil markets are expected to be fairly balanced in 2024, with a slight surplus, as demand and non-OPEC supply growth are exceeding expectations, according to Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader.
The IEA has raised its oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next despite slower economic growth in nearly all major economies, but its 2024 outlook remains much lower than that of OPEC.
Despite the bullish forecasts, the actual increase in oil imports by China, the world's biggest oil importer, is substantially lower than the IEA's forecast for demand growth.