Oil Climbs on Iran Turmoil and Trump's Tariff Threat as Cooler U.S. CPI Shifts Fed Bets

Overview

• President Donald Trump announced an immediate 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran, raising global trade risks and potentially reviving tensions with China.
• Brent settled at $63.87 and WTI at $59.50 on supply concerns linked to escalating unrest in Iran, while Petrobras shares rose on the oil rally.
• U.S. December CPI increased 0.3% month over month (2.7% year over year) and core rose 0.2% (2.6%), with interest-rate swaps fully pricing a Federal Reserve cut by June.
• Reports that the DoJ opened a criminal investigation into the Fed chair fueled anxiety about central-bank independence and supported a firmer dollar.
• The World Bank upgraded near-term U.S. growth but trimmed Brazil’s 2026 outlook to 2.0%, as Chinese customs reported a record $1.189 trillion trade surplus for 2025.