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Ohio State–Miami Cotton Bowl: Odds, Key Matchup and What to Watch

Miami’s pass rush versus Ohio State’s protection is widely viewed as the quarterfinal’s swing factor.

Overview

  • Kickoff is Dec. 31 at AT&T Stadium (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with Ohio State installed as a 9.5-point favorite and a 70.5% win chance per ESPN Analytics.
  • Analysts single out Miami edge disruptors Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor against the Buckeyes’ offensive line as the most decisive matchup after Ohio State’s protection issues vs. Indiana.
  • Ohio State brings an elite run defense that ranks fifth nationally in rushing yards allowed and grades second by PFF, posing a major test for Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr.
  • Miami’s special teams remain a concern after kicker Carter Davis went 1-for-4 at Texas A&M, though Mario Cristobal is sticking with him and the Cotton Bowl’s dome eliminates wind.
  • The game doubles as an NFL showcase, with multiple projected early-round prospects on both sides, including Ohio State defenders Caleb Downs, Kayden McDonald and Sonny Styles and Miami’s Bain and Mesidor.