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Ohio State Tops AP Poll and Early CFP Forecasts After Week 1 Shake‑Up

Voters are weighing Penn State’s ranking against a soft nonconference slate.

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Aug 30, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer looks on against the Florida State Seminoles during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images/File Photo
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Aug 22, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts after a touchdown during the second half against the Chicago Bears at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Overview

  • Ohio State rose to No. 1 in the AP Top 25 with 55 first‑place votes after a 14-7 win over preseason No. 1 Texas, with Penn State at No. 2 and LSU up to No. 3 following its road win at Clemson.
  • The AP noted a rare opening weekend: four top‑10 teams lost in Week 1, and Alabama plunged from No. 8 to No. 21, its biggest regular‑season drop since 1990.
  • USA TODAY’s updated bowl projections placed Ohio State as the projected No. 1 CFP seed, elevated Miami into the field, and tabbed Tulane as the Group of Five favorite, reflecting fast‑shifting post‑Week 1 outlooks.
  • USF’s 34-7 rout of then‑No. 25 Boise State boosted its Group of Five profile as the Bulls visit No. 13 Florida next, while Tulane is widely projected as the leading G5 contender.
  • Analyst rankings and betting picks for Week 2 echo the reshuffle, with Greg McElroy listing Ohio State No. 1, LSU No. 2 and Penn State No. 3, and outlets publishing predictions that include Penn State as a heavy favorite over FIU and mixed views on Michigan at Oklahoma.