Overview
- A year of off-cycle elections showed consistent Democratic overperformance, which multiple outlets describe as a clear midterm warning for Republicans.
- Democrats posted double-digit gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey and notched victories in Pennsylvania and California, and Miami elected its first Democratic mayor in nearly three decades.
- Some Republican wins came with sharply reduced margins, including Trump-backed Matt Van Epps’ nine-point House victory in a deep-red Nashville-area district after Trump carried it by 22 points in 2024.
- President Trump’s job approval averages about 43 percent and Decision Desk HQ’s generic-ballot average shows Democrats leading 44 percent to 41 percent.
- Roll Call outlines two likely 2026 outcomes for the GOP—a narrow hold or a Democratic wave—as Republicans argue Trump’s absence from ballots explains recent results while Democrats plan to run a referendum on him.