Overview
- Retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter launched the Amcha Yisrael list after announcing his candidacy on Tuesday, and he has said he will recommend Benjamin Netanyahu for prime minister while keeping his party independent.
- Three early surveys offer sharply different pictures: a Lazar Research/Walla model gives Winter six seats and dents Religious Zionist and Likud support, a Channel 13/IDTA poll shows his list below the threshold, and an i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey projects about eight seats for Amcha Yisrael.
- Netanyahu and other right-wing figures are already pursuing tactical responses such as pressure on rival lists, talk of reserved spots and potential list deals to reduce fragmentation and protect the coalition’s Knesset total.
- Pollsters and strategists warn that social media enthusiasm for Winter may not convert into committed votes, and analysts note that small shifts of a few thousand ballots could decide which bloc reaches the 61-seat majority.
- With candidate lists due soon and the Oct. 27 election approaching, Winter’s entry highlights how Israel’s proportional system and the electoral threshold give new lists outsized power to reshape government formation.