Overview

• Britain’s headline inflation is projected at about 3.5% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, leaving the UK among the highest in the G7 this year, the OECD says.
• UK GDP growth is forecast at 1.4% in 2025, slowing to roughly 1.0% in 2026 as a tighter fiscal stance, higher trade costs and uncertainty curb demand.
• The OECD lifted its 2025 global growth outlook to around 3.2% but warned the full impact of recent US tariff hikes has yet to be felt.
• The effective US merchandise import tariff rate rose to an estimated 19.5% by end‑August, the highest since 1933, with price effects expected to build.
• KPMG’s UK outlook points to likely tax increases in the autumn Budget and signals cautious Bank of England rate cuts later this year and through 2026.