Overview

• The OECD downgraded its outlook for global expansion to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, down from an estimated 3.3% in 2024.
• US GDP growth is projected to fall to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 if the record-high tariffs remain in place.
• The report cautions that Trump’s import levies—the highest since 1938—could trigger substantial supply chain disruptions and add upward pressure on prices.
• A federal court briefly struck down most of the April tariffs before an appeals court reinstated them, leaving their long-term fate tied to ongoing litigation and negotiations.
• Retailers including Walmart have already raised prices partly in response to the tariffs, underscoring broader inflation risks tied to trade barriers.