Overview

• Argentina’s 2025 growth forecast was cut to 4.5%, the largest downgrade in the G20, driven by weaker private consumption, softer exports, tighter credit, and setbacks in industry and construction.
• OECD projects rapid disinflation in Argentina, with average inflation easing from 219.9% in 2024 to 39.8% in 2025 and 16.5% in 2026.
• Mexico’s 2025 outlook was raised to 0.8% from a contraction forecast in March, though the OECD cautions that U.S. tariffs threaten growth and could stoke inflation.
• Global GDP is now seen at 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, with G20 inflation easing from 3.4% to 2.9% as disinflation slows in some economies due to food and services pressures.
• The OECD assumes end‑August bilateral tariffs persist and estimates they could cut world trade by about 2% and add roughly 0.4 percentage points to annual inflation for three years, while noting Argentina’s recent instability is not fully reflected.