Overview
- Germany’s GDP is projected at +0.3% in 2025, +1.0% in 2026 and +1.5% in 2027, with 2026–27 trimmed slightly from the September outlook.
- The OECD cites persistent headwinds for Germany, including trade‑policy uncertainty, US tariffs, weak external demand and still‑elevated energy costs for industry.
- The recovery is expected to lean on rising private investment and increased public spending on infrastructure and defence, contingent on faster planning and approvals.
- OECD experts warn that large fiscal packages risk fueling inflation unless funds are steered to productivity‑raising projects, and they urge curbs on early‑retirement incentives plus lower taxes on labour.
- Global growth is forecast at 3.2% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, with tariff disruptions easing as the effective US import tariff rate fell to about 14% by late November, though risks from protectionism, fiscal strains and AI‑related asset repricing persist.