Overview
- Global output is now projected to expand 3.2% in 2025, then slow to 2.9% in 2026 before a 3.1% rebound in 2027.
- The U.S. forecast rises to about 2% growth in 2025 before easing to 1.7% in 2026, with China near 5% and the eurozone at 1.3% next year.
- Global trade growth is expected to decelerate from roughly 4.2% in 2025 to about 2.3% in 2026 as tariff effects weigh on investment and consumption.
- The OECD says higher import taxes will gradually lift prices, with U.S. inflation peaking in mid-2026 before easing toward targets by mid-2027 and the Fed likely trimming rates slightly by end-2026.
- Risks flagged include renewed trade tensions and a potential market correction if AI earnings hopes prove overstated, while front-loaded imports and smaller-than-threatened tariffs helped cushion 2025 activity.