Overview

• The OECD now sees global growth at 3.2% in 2025 and U.S. growth at 1.8%, citing resilience from AI-driven investment, emerging markets, and Chinese fiscal support.
• Growth is projected to slow in 2026 to 2.9% globally and 1.5% in the U.S. as the full impact of sweeping U.S. trade barriers takes hold.
• The organization reports the effective U.S. tariff rate has climbed to nearly 20%, with early effects already weighing on spending, labor markets, and consumer prices.
• U.S. inflation is revised down to 2.7% for 2025 and G20 headline inflation to about 3.4%, though the OECD warns tariffs could re-stoke price pressures.
• The OECD expects the Fed to cut rates once more in 2025 and twice in early 2026, and it notes a November Supreme Court review of tariff legality could shift the outlook.