Overview
- Global growth is now projected at 3.2% for 2025, with the 2026 forecast unchanged at 2.9%.
- The OECD says tariff effects are arriving with a delay because many measures are phased and firms initially absorbed higher costs in margins.
- U.S. GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, while the eurozone is seen at 1.2% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026.
- The effective U.S. import tariff rate is estimated at 19.5%, the highest since 1933, according to OECD calculations.
- Risks highlighted include slightly higher inflation, early signs of softer production and consumption in major economies, potential further tariff hikes, and mounting fiscal pressures.