Overview

• Global economic growth is forecast to fall from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026 in response to rising trade barriers.
• U.S. GDP is projected to slow from 2.8% last year to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 due to Trump-era tariffs.
• Canada and Mexico face significant slowdowns, with Canada’s growth set to drop to just 1% in 2025.
• The OECD warns that increased trade costs will push up inflation despite easing commodity prices.
• Elevated debt levels and tighter financial conditions could exacerbate risks for developing countries and disrupt supply chains.