Overview
- Global expansion is now seen at 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, down from forecasts of 3.1% and 3.0% in March.
- The US outlook is downgraded to 1.6% growth in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 as tariffs push the effective import rate to 15.4%.
- US inflation is projected to approach 4% by the end of 2025, roughly double the Federal Reserve’s target, driven by higher trade costs.
- UK growth is trimmed to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026 while China is forecast at 4.7% and 4.3%, reflecting spillovers from higher trade barriers.
- The OECD calls for easing tariffs, broadening tax bases and cutting non-essential spending to restore investment and fiscal strength.