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OECD Cuts 2025-26 Global Growth Forecast to 2.9%

Major economies from the United States to China are expected to slow, rattling European stock markets.

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Overview

  • The OECD cut its global GDP growth forecast to 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024.
  • The United States is projected to slow to 1.6% growth in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, and China’s expansion is expected to moderate to 4.7% and 4.3% over the same period.
  • The eurozone is forecast to strengthen modestly to 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, while Italy’s GDP is seen at 0.6% next year rising to 0.7% in 2026.
  • The OECD highlighted trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, declining confidence and political uncertainty as major headwinds to the outlook.
  • European stock markets reacted negatively, with Paris and Frankfurt slipping about 0.15% and Milan down 0.5% on the growth downgrade.