Overview
- The survey shows Jordan Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at roughly 35–36% across tested scenarios.
- Runoff tests give Bardella 53% against Édouard Philippe, 56% against Gabriel Attal, 58% against Raphaël Glucksmann, and 74% against Jean‑Luc Mélenchon.
- Édouard Philippe polls at 17% in one configuration and would reach the runoff, while Gabriel Attal at 11% trails Glucksmann (about 13.5–14.5%) and Mélenchon (about 11–12%).
- Marine Le Pen is not included in the test lists because her potential 2027 candidacy depends on the outcome of her appeals trial.
- Fieldwork ran 19–20 November with 1,300 adults (1,206 registered voters) and a margin of error of roughly 1.5 to 3.5 points, with close to one‑third not expressing a preference.