Overview
- Futures pricing now implies roughly an 80%–84% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on Dec. 10, according to CME FedWatch.
- New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for easing, with Waller saying he is advocating a cut at the next meeting.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Wall Street Journal she backs a quarter-point reduction to preempt a sharper labor-market deterioration.
- Countering the dovish push, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said there is a high bar for further reductions given inflation remains above the 2% target.
- Because key BLS reports were delayed by the shutdown, some analysts say the Fed could even postpone the meeting to see jobs data, and real-time holiday spending reads are seen as pivotal inputs.