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October PMIs Show Split Global Factory Picture as Tariffs Sap Trade

Export demand stayed soft as companies contended with tariff policy shifts and cost pressures.

Overview

  • United States: ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, marking an eighth straight contraction as tariffs constrained production, supplier deliveries slowed and prices paid eased to 58.0.
  • Europe and UK: Eurozone manufacturing was flat at 50.0 with export orders down and jobs cut; Germany stayed at 49.6, the UK rose to 49.7 on a temporary boost from Jaguar Land Rover’s restart, and Canada improved to 49.6 with slower declines.
  • China: The private RatingDog PMI eased to 50.6 as output and new orders softened and export orders fell, even as employment rose and Beijing deployed additional policy‑bank funding; a later U.S.–China tariff trim offered only limited relief.
  • North Asia: Japan’s PMI slid to 48.2, the sharpest contraction in 19 months on auto and semiconductor weakness, while South Korea dropped back to 49.4 with new orders falling and costs rising despite a U.S.–Korea auto tariff cap deal.
  • India: The HSBC/S&P Global PMI jumped to 59.2 on strong domestic demand supported by GST cuts and technology investment, with faster output growth, continued hiring and elevated selling prices.