Overview
- Official data show gross GST at Rs 1,95,936 crore year-on-year, with net receipts at about Rs 1.69 lakh crore after refunds surged 39.6% to Rs 26,934 crore, yielding 0.6% net growth.
- Domestic GST revenue rose 2% to Rs 1.45 lakh crore, while tax collected on imports increased 12.84% to Rs 50,884 crore, indicating firm import-linked activity.
- The 4.6% rise marked the slowest growth of the fiscal and the weakest since June 2021, reflecting deferred purchases before the September 22 rate changes and only a partial-month impact of lower rates.
- Tax experts flag elevated refunds and inverted-duty mismatches as near-term pressure points, with November and December collections expected to show the full revenue effect of GST 2.0.
- SBI Research projects FY26 GST receipts will beat budget estimates and indicates most states are likely net gainers, with early figures highlighting double-digit growth in Karnataka and Telangana and a strong outturn in Andhra Pradesh.