October 2026 Is the Warmest Month on Record, Copernicus Says

Overview

• Copernicus reported on Friday that October 2026 had a global surface air temperature 1.75°C above pre‑industrial levels, making it the hottest month ever measured.
• The October reading was the third straight month above 1.5°C and ERA5‑based modeling now gives about a 99% chance that 2026’s annual average will exceed 1.5°C.
• ECMWF analysis estimates roughly an 80% probability that 2026 will finish as the second‑warmest year on record and a about 20% chance it will match or exceed 2024.
• Record ocean heat and an exceptional El Niño are amplifying the spike: global sea surface temperatures outside polar regions hit 20.95°C in October and the Niño 3.4 anomaly reached 3.21°C above average.
• The new data intensify pressure at COP31 for faster emissions cuts because the UN says emissions must fall about 6% per year to 2035 to limit the duration of any overshoot and return to the 1.5°C pathway.