Overview
- The Copernicus Climate Change Service recorded a global daily average sea surface temperature of 21.1°C on Aug. 22, 2026, slightly above the previous 2024 peak.
- The new record is based on combined satellite, buoy and ship measurements for the extra-polar ocean (60°S–60°N) using daily data back to 1979 and carries small but nonzero uncertainty.
- Official forecasts from NOAA and the UK Met Office give better than 90% odds of a very strong or 'super' El Niño developing and peaking between November and January, increasing the chance of further temperature records.
- Scientists warn hotter seas will feed stronger storms and heavier rain, raise sea levels by thermal expansion, amplify marine heatwaves and reduce oxygen and habitat for marine life, with the Peruvian anchovy fishery singled out as especially vulnerable.
- Researchers emphasize this event is El Niño adding heat onto a long-term warming baseline—the ocean has absorbed more than 90% of excess heat from human emissions—and they caution coastal communities and food systems to prepare for worsening impacts in coming months.