Overview

• The Office for Budget Responsibility projects that public debt will climb from about 94% of GDP today to over 270% by the early 2070s if policy settings remain unchanged.
• At 94% of GDP, the UK has one of the highest debt ratios among advanced economies and faces the third-highest borrowing costs globally.
• U-turns on planned cuts to disability benefits and winter fuel payments have added between £6 billion and £30 billion to borrowing and eroded fiscal headroom.
• Reversed plans for tax rises and spending reductions, together with unfunded defence spending commitments, present fresh downside risks to the public finances.
• Chancellor Reeves must identify new revenue options—such as income threshold freezes, pension reforms or a possible wealth tax—to bridge the gap ahead of her Autumn Budget.