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OBR Sees BBC Licence Fee Near £197 by 2029 as Non-Payment Surges

Official projections signal rising costs that underscore mounting strain on the BBC’s funding model.

Overview

  • The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts the annual TV licence could climb from £174.50 to about £197 by the next election expected in 2029.
  • Next year’s charge is set to be indexed to September inflation of 3.8%, with reports indicating a rise to just over £181.
  • Roughly 3.6 million households now refuse to pay, with the Public Accounts Committee warning of enforcement weaknesses and significant lost income.
  • Paying households are projected to fall by more than one million to around 21 million as viewers shift to streaming services.
  • Government plans to review the Royal Charter ahead of its 2027 expiry have revived debate over alternative funding, while coverage notes leadership turmoil and a reported legal threat from President Donald Trump.