Overview
- The OBR briefly posted its full Economic and Fiscal Outlook around 30–40 minutes early, exposing forecasts including about £26.1bn in additional tax revenue by 2029–30 before taking it down.
- Financial markets moved on the leak, with 10-year gilt yields slipping roughly 4 basis points and sterling rising about 0.3% as traders digested the headline fiscal numbers.
- OBR chair Richard Hughes called the upload a mistake, issued an apology, removed the document, and opened a forensic internal investigation while retaining the chancellor’s stated confidence.
- Political pressure mounted as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch demanded an inquiry and shadow chancellor Mel Stride told MPs the breach could amount to a criminal act.
- The incident undercut Reeves’s Budget delivery, raised concerns about document handling—reports noted a guessable link and 3:10am PDF metadata—and revived calls from critics, including unions, to review the OBR’s remit.