Overview
- An AtlasIntel survey conducted Oct. 25–30 shows Mikie Sherrill at 50.2% and Jack Ciattarelli at 49.3%, effectively a tie within the poll’s margin of error.
- Barack Obama campaigned with Sherrill at a Newark get‑out‑the‑vote rally after stumping in Virginia, casting the contests as a rebuke of President Donald Trump’s leadership.
- Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli and joined him for an Oct. 24 telephone rally, while the Republican nominee pressed a statewide bus tour focused on taxes, energy costs and public safety.
- Democrats report a sizable raw advantage in early voting, including roughly 221,000 more mail‑in ballots than Republicans as of Thursday, which party strategists describe as an early‑vote firewall.
- A recent Emerson/Hill poll highlights a stark gender split, with Sherrill leading among women by 18 points and Ciattarelli leading among men by 16 points, underscoring divergent turnout targets.