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Obama Beats Trump by Double Digits in Latest Third-Term Hypothetical Poll

Broad support for Obama among Hispanic, Black and independent voters comes against a constitutional term limit that makes any third bid impossible.

Former US President Barack Obama speaks with President-elect Donald Trump before the State Funeral Service for former US President Jimmy Carter at the Washington National Cathedral in Washington, DC, on January 9, 2025.

Overview

  • A Daily Mail/J.L. Partners survey of 1,013 registered voters conducted July 9–10 found Obama leading Trump 52% to 41% in a hypothetical third-term matchup.
  • Obama garnered especially strong backing from Hispanic voters (73%), Black voters (68%) and independents (50%) compared with 39% support for Trump among independents.
  • The 22nd Amendment bars any president from serving more than two terms and would require a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of Congress and ratification by 38 states to change.
  • No formal legislation to repeal or amend the presidential term limit has advanced in Congress, and there is no significant political momentum behind such an effort.
  • While Trump has suggested potential legal workarounds for a third term, constitutional scholars widely regard any attempt as almost certainly blocked under existing law.