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NZIER Survey Shows Confidence Eases, Activity Cools as Firms Lift Prices

The quarterly NZIER readout signals weaker demand with firmer price-setting, sharpening expectations for an RBNZ cut on Wednesday.

Overview

  • A net 18% of firms expected better conditions in Q3, down from 22% previously, with the seasonally adjusted measure at 15% versus 26%.
  • Capacity utilisation slipped to 89.1% from 89.4%, pointing to softer operating activity.
  • Price pressures strengthened as a net 11% of firms reported raising prices, reversing a net 1% price reduction in the prior quarter.
  • Firms cut back sharply on staffing and capex, with a net 23% reducing headcount and more planning to trim spending on plant, machinery and buildings.
  • The survey supports further easing at the Oct. 8 RBNZ meeting, with a Reuters poll centering on a 25 bp cut and some economists expecting 50 bp, as NZIER says nothing in the data would preclude a larger move.