Overview

• The analysis of L2 data shows Democrats lost about 2.1 million registrants and Republicans gained roughly 2.4 million from 2020 to 2024 in the 30 states plus Washington, D.C. that record party, with Democrats losing ground in each and their advantage shrinking from nearly 11 points to just over 6.
• For the first time since 2018, more new voters registered as Republicans than Democrats in 2024, and limited post‑2024 data reviewed by the Times shows roughly 200,000 more Republicans and about 160,000 fewer Democrats on the rolls since Election Day.
• Erosion was steep in battlegrounds including Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, with Republicans erasing roughly 95% of Democrats’ 2020 registration edge in North Carolina and Nevada posting one of the sharpest Democratic declines outside West Virginia.
• Democrats’ losses were concentrated among men and younger voters, with the share of new male registrants choosing the party falling from about 49% in 2020 to roughly 39% in 2024 and Republicans in key states registering nearly twice as many voters under 35.
• Republicans ramped up voter‑registration operations, including efforts by activist Scott Presler and a stated willingness by party officials to use tools like drop boxes and ballot harvesting where legal, while Democratic strategists conceded they “fell asleep at the switch” and misjudged the problem.