Overview
- NYDIG’s research finds bitcoin’s correlations with inflation are weak and inconsistent, challenging the 'digital gold' hedge narrative.
- The study highlights dollar strength, real interest rates and money supply as primary drivers, with bitcoin tending to rise when the dollar weakens.
- NYDIG reports bitcoin’s inverse relationship with real (inflation-adjusted) rates has strengthened as it becomes more integrated with mainstream finance.
- Glassnode data show illiquid supply fell by roughly 62,000 BTC around Oct. 23, indicating previously dormant coins moved back into circulation.
- On-chain metrics also point to continued selling from smaller wallets and a contraction in first-time buyer supply to about 213,000 BTC, a mix that can blunt rallies unless liquidity improves.