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NYDIG Recasts Bitcoin as a Liquidity Barometer, Not an Inflation Hedge

New analysis finds macro liquidity signals drive Bitcoin’s price, with a recent rise in tradable supply highlighting near‑term selling risk.

Overview

  • NYDIG’s Oct. 26 research note concludes Bitcoin’s correlation with inflation is weak and inconsistent.
  • The firm argues Bitcoin now acts as a gauge of market liquidity, whereas gold primarily hedges movements in real interest rates.
  • Real rates, money supply and dollar strength better explain Bitcoin’s behavior, with gains more likely when the dollar weakens.
  • NYDIG says Bitcoin’s sensitivity to real rates has strengthened as the asset integrates further into mainstream finance.
  • Glassnode data reported by NewsBTC show about 62,000 BTC moved from illiquid wallets back into circulation in October, signaling potential sell-side pressure.