Overview

• Expected inflation for the next year rose to 3.4% from 3.2%, while three- and five-year expectations held near 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Respondents see a higher chance of unemployment in a year and a greater probability of losing their job, though they also report better odds of finding work if displaced.
• Households rate current finances slightly better but lower their one-year outlook and scale back planned spending growth.
• Year-ahead food price expectations climbed to the highest level since March 2023.
• The September survey was completed before the shutdown, as the Fed weighs further easing after cutting rates to 4.00%–4.25% and officials highlight a balancing act with tariff-related price risks and softer hiring signals.