NWS Flags Localized Heavy Rain and Flash Flood Risk for West‑Central Texas Overnight

Overview

• The Weather Prediction Center issued Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1570 late Saturday warning that convective bands over the Rolling Plains, Big Country and Concho Valley may produce rainfall rates up to 1.5 inches per hour and localized 2–3 inch totals overnight.
• WPC forecasters said high moisture flux and favorable band orientation raise the chance of repeating or back‑building cells, which would concentrate rain into narrow streaks and increase flash‑flood odds for urban areas and small streams.
• Satellite soil‑moisture products cited in WPC discussions show near‑surface saturation in parts of the Permian Basin and West Texas at the 90th–95th percentile, which reduces infiltration and raises runoff risk where heavy rates occur.
• The Storm Prediction Center noted a separate, isolated threat for marginally severe hail up to about 1.25 inches across parts of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle but judged a watch unlikely.
• Central California and other earlier brief threats remain lower priority because WPC found soils there below normal moisture so much rainfall is expected to soak in rather than cause widespread flash flooding.