Overview
- NWEA analyzed MAP Growth scores from more than 400,000 students and found that children who began kindergarten in the bottom 20% had about a 10% chance of being proficient in math and a 13.9% chance in reading by third grade.
- For students who remained in the bottom quintile at the end of first grade, the chance of third-grade proficiency fell to roughly 2%, showing how quickly the opportunity to close gaps can vanish.
- The findings, published on Thursday, June 25, 2026, rely on MAP test data that cover many districts but are not a probability sample like NAEP, which means the sample is large and demographically similar to U.S. students but not a nationally selected representative sample.
- Researchers and advocates say the results highlight weak and uneven early screening: some districts use screeners that only spot word-reading problems and miss comprehension needs, and staggered rollouts of 'science of reading' laws in 2021–22 likely mean those reforms had little time to affect this cohort.
- There is variation across schools and states—some districts have closed gaps—so NWEA plans state-level follow-ups to study whether the timing and quality of screening, training, and interventions explain different outcomes and what policies might improve students’ long-term prospects.