Nvidia's Stock Rise Sparks Debate Over Future Cash Flow Expectations

Despite a 3X YoY surge in Q3 earnings, some analysts question the sustainability of the company's current valuation.

Nvidia's stock is up more than 1,200% in the last five years and 238% year-to-date, but some analysts believe the future cash flow expectations baked into the current stock price are disconnected from reality.
To justify its current price of $484/share, Nvidia would have to immediately improve NOPAT margin to 38%, grow revenue by consensus in fiscal 2024 (101%) and 2025 (47%), and grow revenue 25% each year thereafter through fiscal 2038.
Nvidia's third fiscal quarter saw a 3X year-over-year surge to $18.12 billion, resulting in a 34% gain versus the previous quarter, to a new level of record revenue and $10 billion in bottom line profit.
Nvidia’s Data Center group chalked-up $14.5 billion in revenue for the quarter, resulting in a 41% sequential gain and a massive 279% quarter on quarter lift over the same period last year.
Nvidia's Gaming group delivered $2.856 billion for the quarter, compared to $2.49 billion in its previous Q2 quarter (up about 15%), and $2.24 billion quarter on quarter from a year ago.