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Nvidia’s Reported $20 Billion Groq Licensing Deal Signals New Bid to Cement AI-Chip Lead

A reset in valuation is renewing confidence in Nvidia’s 2026 setup.

Overview

  • Nvidia said it entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Groq and hired founder Jonathan Ross and other staff, with CNBC reporting the deal at about $20 billion that the company has not confirmed.
  • CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia was sold out of cloud GPUs in Q3 FY2026 as hyperscalers prepare even larger 2026 budgets after roughly $400 billion of AI-related capex in 2025.
  • Micron’s fiscal Q1 2026 beat and surging guidance underscore tight high‑bandwidth memory supply and robust data‑center demand that support Nvidia’s platform.
  • Raymond James noted U.S. approval for H200 shipments to approved customers in China could provide upside, estimating a favorable scenario of roughly $7 billion to $12.5 billion in 2026 revenue for Nvidia.
  • Nvidia shares have pulled back about 8%–11% from October highs to roughly a $4.4 trillion value as multiples compress, while Bernstein and Cantor reiterate bullish views into next-generation architectures.